Less than a month before the congressional elections, record fuel prices have prompted Donald Trump to strike a deal with Vladimir Putin on supplies of Russian diesel. The move comes just weeks after tougher sanctions against Moscow were approved, and even experts are questioning its effectiveness.
President Trump announced the agreement late last week on his Truth Social network following a phone call with Putin. According to him, Russia has committed to immediately supplying over 300,000 tonnes of diesel, followed by several million tonnes more over the coming months. In response, the US Treasury Department has suspended sanctions on Russian diesel until April next year.
Yet less than a month ago, Trump signed a sanctions bill named after the recently deceased Senator Lindsey Graham, which was meant to intensify pressure on Russia instead. A group of seven senators, including four Republicans, has opposed the deal, branding it unlawful. According to them, it violates the ban on Russian energy imports enacted after the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. However, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent insists that the Trump administration is acting within its existing powers.
The deal comes at a time when Americans are grappling with record fuel prices. The main cause is the war with Iran, which in its current form has been ongoing since late February and has severely crippled shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Diesel prices in the US have nearly doubled compared to last year, surpassing six dollars a gallon for the first time in history this September—all less than three weeks before Americans head to the polls to elect a new Congress.
However, Trump blames Ukraine for the expensive diesel. Just a day after the announcement, he turned his attention to Kyiv, telling journalists: "I think it is time for Ukraine to get a new president." Above all, he reproaches Volodymyr Zelenskyy for strikes on Russian refineries, which he claims have driven up diesel prices for American farmers. Zelenskyy has criticised the deal, stating that every additional billion dollars from Russian exports will be used to manufacture weapons and drones. He also added that Russia immediately "repaid" the easing of sanctions and American goodwill with an attack on Zaporizhzhia that killed 20 people.
Doubts also remain over what the deal will actually deliver for Americans themselves. According to CNBC, the promised supplies will not even cover two weeks of normal US consumption, and analysts say prices will not drop significantly. Furthermore, it remains unknown whether Russia can even deliver the diesel at all. Its fuel exports have plummeted this year from roughly 850,000 to under 200,000 barrels per day, and following numerous strikes on refineries, Russia has even had to import fuel. "In the short term, it is very hard to see how Russia could manage to supply the volumes talked about in the deal," Neil Atkinson, former head of the oil markets division at the International Energy Agency, told Al Jazeera.
The primary intent of the agreement thus appears to be an attempt to lower fuel prices and improve Republican prospects in the elections. In the context of the recent signing of tougher sanctions, however, the move comes across as muddled. Whilst Trump shifts the blame onto Zelenskyy, he fails to mention the war with Iran—which is largely in his own hands—as a cause. In September, he rejected an Iranian offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and told Republicans that the conflict would only end after the elections. The deal is therefore unlikely to be of much help to American motorists. Whether voters will nevertheless appreciate Trump's efforts will become clear on 3 November.
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