Record-low turnout, record-high victory. How did the Latvian elections unfold?
Last Saturday, citizens in Baltic Latvia went to the polls to elect a new Saeima, the country's parliament. The elections were won by the centrist United List, led by incumbent Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs. Other parties that crossed the 5% threshold to enter parliament included the far-right, MAGA-inspired Latvia First, the Sovereign Power party representing the interests of the Russian minority, the conservative National Alliance, the leftist Progressives, and the center-right New Unity, which won the election four years ago.
The results indicate that Latvia's political direction is unlikely to change significantly. The new governing coalition is expected to consist of the United List, the National Alliance, and New Unity. This would be the same coalition that governed prior to the election, with the exception of the Union of Greens and Farmers, which failed to make it into the Latvian parliament for the first time since its founding in 2002.
The victorious United List was formed four years ago after splitting from the Union of Greens and Farmers. However, it would be a mistake to consider it a green party in the traditional European sense. A unique feature of the Baltic states is so-called green conservatism, which focuses primarily on protecting agricultural land and developing rural areas. This ideology is relatively successful in Latvia, partly because the country has the third-highest proportion of agricultural workers in the EU—roughly 7% of the population, according to Eurostat.
The main issue influencing the election results was security—specifically, the fear of an attack on the Baltic nation by neighboring Russia. On these issues, the United List takes a firmly pro-Western stance, supporting Ukraine and emphasizing the importance of a strong, well-prepared military. Immediately after the results were announced, Andris Kulbergs ruled out forming a government with any pro-Russian party. He also rejected cooperation with the pro-Trump Latvia First.
The Russian question has long been a deeply polarizing topic in the country, largely because Latvia is home to a sizeable Russian minority. Approximately a quarter of the total population identifies as ethnically Russian. In many cities, including the capital Riga and the second-largest city Daugavpils, ethnic Latvians do not even make up a majority. However, it is worth noting that not all Russian-speaking residents automatically favor closer ties with Russia, a nuance reflected in the election results.
Interestingly, the election set two records. The first was the lowest turnout in the history of Latvian parliamentary elections, at just 51.79%—a drop of nearly 8 percentage points compared to the previous election. The second record was the winning party's result: the United List secured 35.76% of the vote and 41 seats in the 100-member parliament, an achievement unmatched by any party in Latvian history. Andris Kulbergs now has a unique opportunity to shape his country's political future. Whether he succeeds will become clear over the next four years.
