Referendums are nothing unusual in Alberta. Seven plebiscites have already taken place there in the past; most recently, five years ago, people voted on removing the federal government’s commitment to guarantee equalisation payments from the Canadian constitution, as well as on daylight saving time. The question of provincial autonomy was raised on such a scale for the very first time, even though pro-independence tendencies towards Ottawa have long been evident in the region. Proponents of greater self-governance argue that the province would gain greater control over its oil reserves, which are the fourth largest in the world.
The movement is dissatisfied with central government restrictions limiting mineral extraction in favour of greater environmental protection. Over the past ten years, it has entered the broader public consciousness through its criticism of the Liberal Party, and specifically former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Under his government, environmental taxes were pushed through which, according to his critics, harmed the extraction industry. Moreover, during the coronavirus pandemic, the government restricted movement across the US–Canadian border, thereby hitting brisk trade with its southern neighbour. The largest volume of extracted oil is transported to the United States – estimates put it at up to 90 per cent of the total amount. The argument of proximity to the US was key for the separatists; as part of their campaign, they travelled to Washington, D.C., where they met unnamed officials from President Trump’s administration.
However, as is evident – and the referendum results only confirm this – Donald Trump is unacceptable even to the residents of Alberta. With almost all votes counted, it turns out that even the argument for greater control over their "own" resources does not work.
Around 75 per cent of all referendum participants rejected the idea. Given current global events, this comes as a relief for Mark Carney’s government. The country is going through multiple crises – housing and food costs have risen by nearly a third compared to the pre-pandemic period, whilst wage growth is slowing. Canadian households are the most indebted of all G7 countries, and the economy is also struggling with rising inflation and high youth unemployment.
Despite the aforementioned list of problems, however, Canadians trust the government. Ottawa enjoys high public confidence, as does Prime Minister Mark Carney. The opposition Conservative Party is trailing behind the ruling Liberals, and the trend of support for the current government is unlikely to decline anytime soon.
Following the devastating plebiscite result, it is clear that in some cases regional separatist movements not only fail to achieve their goal, but actually turn the entire issue against themselves. And one major antipathy may be playing a role in it all. Let us recall last year’s situation, when it long seemed that the Liberal Party would lose the election after three terms in office. The Conservatives’ inability to distance themselves from the US president and his remarks about subjugating Canada turned voter sentiment against them. The same may have proved fatal to the initiators of this year’s referendum. Donald Trump has not toned down his rhetoric – quite the opposite. Disrupting Canada’s unity would only aid his imperial appetites, even as he himself is unable to end a war that he started. On the world stage, Canadians play an important role personified precisely by Mark Carney. Even after Monday’s referendum, Alberta remains a Canadian province. For a country that is, in the Prime Minister’s words, a "middle power", this is good news not only for preserving territorial integrity in a time of crisis, but also for maintaining relevance on the global stage.
