Many Brazilians woke up to a major surprise on Monday morning. Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, of the left-wing Workers' Party, won the second round of the country's presidential election. His opponent, right-wing senator and son of the former Brazilian president, Flávio Bolsonaro, had entered the run-off as the clear favourite, having secured over 47% in the first round to beat Lula by nearly two percentage points. However, the second round turned out completely differently—51.79% for Lula to 48.21% for Bolsonaro.
Until now, no candidate in Brazil had ever become president without winning the first round. The betting platform Polymarket had even predicted a Bolsonaro victory with a probability of up to 77 %. Even so, the 81-year-old politician managed to defeat an opponent nearly 40 years his junior, likely securing a fourth term as president (his first two took place between 2002 and 2010).
The secret to Lula's success was the mobilisation of young voters in particular. To connect with them better and show that he was keeping up with the times, he even bought his very first mobile phone. Among other things, his campaign rallied them to defend democratic values. During the presidency of Bolsonaro's father, Jair—whose policies Flávio actively embraces—there was a noticeable decline in the country's liberal democracy index. This was driven primarily by his attacks on the Supreme Federal Court, pressure on the media, and even questioning of the electoral process itself.Everything culminated after his 2022 election defeat, following which Jair Bolsonaro allegedly attempted a military coup and plotted to assassinate Lula himself, crimes for which he is now serving a 27-year prison sentence.
Perhaps for this reason, Flávio's campaign failed to win over enough voters. The central plank of his manifesto was a tough crackdown on crime, which in Brazil is among the highest in the world. Mobile phone thefts are particularly common, as one Argentinian found out first-hand after travelling to Brazil to support Lula's campaign, only to have his mobile stolen live during a television interview. Alongside having a father in prison (whom he promised to pardon should he become president), there is also frequent talk of his alleged ties to organised crime in Rio de Janeiro.
However, Lula himself is no stranger to prison. In 2017, he was sentenced to nine years in prison for alleged corruption and money laundering. Two years later, he received an additional 12-year sentence for accepting a bribe in the form of a luxury property. As a result, he was barred from running for president in 2018, even though opinion polls suggested he would likely have won. That paved the way for the aforementioned Jair Bolsonaro to come to power. Ultimately, however,Lula spent only 18 months behind bars before being freed by the Supreme Federal Court due to the alleged bias of the judge who had overseen his case.
This year's election therefore pitted against each other two politicians who, for certain sections of society in their country,represent the very embodiment of corruption. Lula ultimately won more votes, but the situation is still far from resolved. Flávio Bolsonaro has refused to recognise the election result and has called for the vote to be annulled, citing extended voting hours at certain polling stations. US President Donald Trump, who indirectly backed Bolsonaro, has also spoken of electoral fraud, though he has provided no evidence to support his claim. Combined with a decisive victory for Bolsonaro's Liberal Party in the lower house elections, this means that governing will be far from easy for Lula. Chaos thus continues to grip the world's fourth most populous democracy even after the polls have closed.
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